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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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During the livestream, the president stated that he had spoken with a woman who said her 26-year-old son had taken his own life because of online betting. He also mentioned hearing from a bettor who had racked up BRL2 million ($388,410) in debt in just three months of wagering.
Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.
What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.
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“So this is not an either/or. It is a B2C acquisition that we expect to strengthen our B2B pipeline on the continent.”
GiG exited the B2C space in 2023 when, after a strategic review, the company split its media and platform divisions, the former of which was rebranded as Gentoo Media.
The 888Africa acquisition announcement raises questions about why GiG have opted to return to the B2C sphere. Richards warns against over-analysing the deal as a wholesale return to B2C, insisting that GiG remains a B2B platform and tech business at its core.
